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Savings version: Investment ideas: Follow the intelligence analysis and refer to Topa Investment as appropriate. Day2 recommends Ether and Ruizhao, and the lightning protection black tower.
First let’s look at the review of Day1:
Up and down results and my investment points:
Judging from the information on the first day, the price rise of the three products, Black Tower Figures, Jimi Dolls, and Ruizhao 15, is predictable. The only variable is the top line of the intelligence, which says that consumers have some doubts about consumerism, but this variable was eliminated on Day 2 and the market is back on track.
Next is the information about Day2:
Let’s analyze it piece by piece:
01: Corresponding to Day1 consumers’ doubts about consumerism, indicating that the market is back to a healthy state, and price fluctuation bars (red, yellow, and green) can account for a greater proportion in the decision-making process.
On the first day, the prices of all commodities increased. The highest increase was 46.4% for the black tower model, and the lowest increase was 9.6% for roses. This is obviously not the price fluctuation that a market under normal conditions should have. And what should the market look like without the influence of external factors? It will rise or fall. Each commodity corresponds to a price fluctuation bar. Green, yellow, and red represent the fluctuation range from low to high respectively. Low volatility means low risk, and high volatility may also bring high returns while high risk. Risk preference depends on the individual, so I won’t do too much analysis here.
02: The probability of the price of the black tower model rising is extremely low, and there is a certain probability of maintaining the same price. The greater possibility is that it will decline.
The investment in Yaliluo's new production line has increased commodity production capacity. According to the law of supply and demand, prices will decrease accordingly. Considering the particularity of this product (a product of the idol economy, not practical, a one-time transaction (rarely repurchased)), and the large price fluctuations, it may not necessarily drop a lot within a day or two, but it certainly won't drop much in the long run. It is an investment plan, so it is not recommended to continue buying.
03: Preview of the new version of "Aether Front": While attracting old players to update the cassettes they already have, it will also attract more new eyes. The influx of new players is a strong driving force for cassette sales (refer to Star Iron to know orz)
04: Ruizhao 15 has postponed some of its galaxy sales plans, and the number of orders has exceeded the production capacity limit.
The description of this news is very interesting. For this reason, I went to check specifically. If the pre-ordered quantity of a product exceeds the production capacity limit, will the price of the product increase or decrease? Unfortunately, the browser did not give a good answer. My personal prediction here is that the price will rise, but the increase may not be too large (< the increase on the Ethereum front).
On the first day, it was said that the Interstellar Peace Company would launch a limited collector's edition, and on the second day, it was said that it had diversified customizable appearances and patented functions, both of which were great weapons to increase the price. Coupled with the current lack of production capacity (refer to hunger marketing), consumers are willing to buy at a higher price in order to obtain auspicious signs. The personalized design also makes it reasonable to increase the price.
Finally, after referring to Topa's suggestions, I gave my own investment points:
Logistics Jiqiaoniao is because the price has increased on the first day, and this product is urgently needed, so you can consider investing (but not too much); Jimi considers that the live broadcast just ended the day before and the popularity has not passed, so you should be able to continue investing. The Creation Engine is purely a souvenir, and the rose feels like it's just a part of the fun. The train won't be running today, and we'll wait and see what happens.