The Tony Blair Institute released a report predicting that artificial intelligence will have a significant impact on the UK job market. The report pointed out that artificial intelligence may replace 1 million to 3 million private sector jobs in the future, but it will also create new jobs, and the increase in long-term unemployment will be controlled within a certain range. The report deeply analyzes the extent to which different industries are affected and proposes coping strategies aimed at helping the UK adapt to the changes brought by artificial intelligence, ensuring sustained economic growth and a smooth transition to the labor market.
Artificial intelligence (AI) is expected to replace 1 million to 3 million jobs in the UK's private sector, according to a new report from the Tony Blair Institute. However, despite a certain degree of unemployment in the short term, the increase in unemployment will only be within a few hundred thousand in the long term, as the emergence of new technologies will also create new job opportunities. The institute notes that between 60,000 and 275,000 jobs are expected to be replaced each year in the coming decades.
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The report stressed that this unemployment figure is "relatively moderate" because the average number of unemployed people in the UK has been around 450,000 over the past decade. Currently, the number of employed people in the UK has exceeded 33 million. With the rapid development of technologies such as chatbot ChatGPT, the influence of artificial intelligence is rapidly rising to the political agenda.
The report notes that while AI can lead to a certain number of job losses, the impact is expected to gradually weaken after reaching its peak around 2030. The Tony Blair Institute expects that the number of unemployed people may increase by about 180,000 by then, but this is still controllable compared to the current number of about 1.4 million unemployed people. The institute believes that artificial intelligence will promote dynamic changes in the labor market, allowing more workers to leave their original jobs and find new opportunities.
To cope with this change, the Institute recommends “upgrades” of the UK’s labour market infrastructure, including the establishment of early warning systems to promptly identify which work may be affected by AI. The report also predicts that the deployment of artificial intelligence may drive GDP growth by up to 1% over the next five years, with the figure expected to rise to 6% by 2035.
In jobs affected by artificial intelligence, administrative and secretary positions are the most vulnerable, followed by sales, customer service, and industries such as banking and finance. Work in these areas will achieve the greatest time savings from the deployment of AI. And industries that require complex manual labor, such as construction, are less affected.
While some companies may use AI to save time and lay off employees in the early stages, in the long run, the application of AI is expected to increase employee productivity, thereby promoting economic growth and creating more job opportunities.
Key points:
Artificial intelligence is expected to replace 1 million to 3 million private sector jobs in the UK, but the number of long-term unemployment increases are limited.
AI deployment is expected to drive GDP growth by 1% over five years and will increase to 6% by 2035.
Jobs in the administrative, sales and finance industries are most vulnerable to artificial intelligence, while industries such as construction are less affected.
In summary, the report believes that the impact of AI on the UK job market is complex and multifaceted. Although it may cause some level of unemployment in the short term, in the long run, artificial intelligence is expected to boost economic growth and create new jobs. A positive policy response and upgrade of labour market infrastructure will be crucial to ensure the UK can adapt to this technological change smoothly.