Refining medicine is one of the most popular auxiliary skills for characters in Fantasy Westward Journey. This skill can refine second-level medicines into third-level medicines, and then increase the value of the props. The current method of refining medicine is to use 3 or 4 secondary medicines for refining. The greater the number, the higher the success rate. But in terms of cost performance, finding a suitable quantity is our goal. Let's test the probability of refining medicine.
Test method: ① 4-7 140-level alchemy accounts. In this test, 3 more alchemy accounts were added to the test accounts after reaching level 140.
②Aiming at goal 1, 3 experimental groups were designed: a ghost area (Zhejiang District 2-Bihai Chaosheng), 3 level 2 medicines, and the time is 0:00-1:00 (24-hour system). b Fire area (incomparable - Lanting preface), 3 level 2 medicines, 6:00-8:00 (24-hour clock). c) Fire area (incomparable - Lanting preface), 3 level 2 medicines, Monday to Thursday 22:00-23:00 (24-hour system).
The above three groups are recorded as "Ghost Zone 3*2", "Lanting Early 3*2", and "Lanting Late 3*2".
Target 2: Retest the "4 2J Drugs" program from June 3, 2023 to July 10, 2023, and retest the "Four 2J Drugs" program from July 10, 2023 to July 16, 2023, in the Unparalleled-Lanting District. One 1J medicine + three 2J medicines" plan.
The above two groups are recorded as "Lanting 4*2" and "Lanting 1+3*2" respectively.
③Statistical detection method: Chi-square test is used to compare whether there is a statistical difference between multiple groups. p<0.05 means there is a statistical difference. Use the Bonferroni method to adjust the α level and compare whether there is a statistical difference between the two.
④The following three medicines refer to third-level medicines excluding gold sore medicines.
Test results:
① Determine the sample size: When the Lantingzao 3*2 group and the Lantingwan 3*2 group refine medicine for about 800 times respectively, the probability of the Lantingzao 3*2 group refining the three medicines is about 0.55, and the Lantingwan 3*2 group has a probability of refining three medicines. The probability of making three medicines is about 0.52. Calculated based on this, to distinguish the two groups requires at least 2500 medicine refining times for each group.
②Final result:
Ghost area 3*2 group: 437 3-drugs and 256 golden sores were refined. The probability of refining 3-drugs is 0.631, and the 95% confidence interval is 0.595-0.567;
Lantingzao 3*2 group: 1434 3-drugs and 1154 golden sores were refined. The probability of refining 3-drugs is 0.554, and the 95% confidence interval is 0.535-0.573;
Lantingwan 3*2 group: 1461 3-drugs and 1108 golden sores were refined. The probability of refining 3-drugs is 0.569, and the 95% confidence interval is 0.550-0.588;
③Retest data results:
Lanting 4*2 group: 710 3-drugs and 183 golden sores were refined. The probability of refining 3-drugs is 0.795, and the 95% confidence interval is 0.769-0.822;
Lanting 1+3*2 group: Refined 538 3-medicine medicine and 248 golden sore medicines. The probability of refining 3-medicine medicine is 0.684, and the 95% confidence interval is 0.652-0.717;
④Statistical analysis:
A. Between Lanting Zao 3*2 group and Lanting Late 3*2 group: Chi-square=1.117, p=0.291>0.05, there is no statistical difference.
Therefore, the two groups were combined into one group, namely Lanting 3*2 group: 2895 3-drugs and 2262 golden sores were refined. The probability of refining 3-drugs was 0.561, and the 95% confidence interval was 0.548-0.575;
B. Between the ghost area 3*2 group and the Lanting 3*2 group: chi-square=11.939, p=0.001<0.05, there is a statistical difference.
C. Comparison between Lanting 3*2, 1+3*2, and 4*2 groups: chi-square=197.003, p<0.001<0.05, there is a statistical difference.
Comparison between Lanting 3*2 and 1+3*2 groups: chi-square=42.367, p<0.001<0.05/3, there is a statistical difference.
Comparison between Lanting 1+3*2 and 4*2 groups: chi-square=26.798, p<0.001<0.05/3, there is a statistical difference.
Between the Lanting 3*2 and 4*2 groups: the probability gap is the largest. There is a statistical gap in the other two groups, so there is obviously a statistical difference in this group.
Let’s talk about the final conclusion first:
1. In the same area (Lanting sequence), (specific) at different times, the formula is 3 second medicines, and there is no difference in the success rate of refining the medicines.
2. Different areas (Lanting Sequence VS Bihai Chaosheng), the formula is 3 second medicines, and the success rate of refining medicine is different (Bihai Chaosheng is higher).
3. In the same area (Lanting order), different formulas (3 two-drug, 1 1-drug + 3 2-drug, 4 2-drug), the success rate of refining medicine is different (4 2-drug is the highest, 1 1-drug +3 2-drugs is the second best, 3 2-drugs is the lowest).
4. Lanting preface, 140 medicine refining skills, the recommended medicine refining plan is 4 medicines and 2 medicines.