OpenAI CEO Sam Altman recently published a blog post boldly predicting that super-intelligent artificial intelligence may appear within the next decade. Downcodes editors will interpret Altman’s views and analyze their potential impact.
On Monday local time, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman outlined his vision for a future of AI-driven technological progress and global prosperity in a new personal blog post titled "The Age of Intelligence." The article paints a picture of artificial intelligence accelerating human progress, and Altman believes that super-intelligent artificial intelligence may emerge within the next decade.
Altman said: "We may see the emergence of superintelligence within a few thousand days; although it may take longer, I am confident that this goal will be achieved."
He noted that OpenAI’s current main goal is to create artificial general intelligence (AGI), a technology that can match human intelligence without specialized training. In contrast, superintelligence is a higher level above AGI and can surpass humans in intellectual tasks, even to an unimaginable extent.
Superintelligence (sometimes called "ASI" for "artificial intelligence superintelligence") is a popular but sometimes fringe topic in the machine learning community. Former OpenAI co-founder and chief scientist Ilya Sutskever left OpenAI in June to found a company with the phrase "secure superintelligence" in its name. Altmann himself, meanwhile, has been talking about developing superintelligence since at least last year.
So, how long is "thousands of days"? There is no definite answer. Altman chose a vague number, possibly because he doesn't exactly know when ASI will arrive, but it sounds like he thinks it could happen within a decade.
Let’s roughly calculate: 2,000 days is about 5.5 years, 3,000 days is about 8.2 years, and 4,000 days is about 11 years. In other words, Altman probably believes that super-intelligent AI may appear within ten years.
Although Altman's time expectations sound a bit vague, as the leader of OpenAI, he is likely to have a lot of cutting-edge AI research information. He acknowledged that not everyone shares his optimism. Computer scientist Grady Booker expressed doubts about his "thousands of days" prediction, believing that it was just a hype with no basis in reality.
In the article, Altman emphasized the importance of reducing computational costs. He pointed out that in order for more people to use AI, sufficient infrastructure must be built. He warns that if we don't act, AI will become a scarce resource that could lead to competition and become a tool for the wealthy.
He also called the current era the "intelligent era", which is another important period of technological change after the Stone Age, the Agricultural Age and the Industrial Age. He believes that the success of deep learning algorithms is the catalyst for this new era. In the future, AI assistants will become more and more powerful, and can even form "personal AI teams" to help people complete various tasks.
Although Altman mentioned the impact that AI may have on the labor market, he remains optimistic about the overall impact of AI. He said that while prosperity does not always bring happiness, it will undoubtedly improve the quality of life of people around the world.
Finally, he ends the article with an example from an old career. He mentioned that if street lamplighters hundreds of years ago were to see the world today, they would find the prosperity before them unimaginable.
Highlight:
? Super-intelligent AI may be realized within the next few thousand days, and OpenAI is going all out.
Reducing computing costs and infrastructure construction are the keys to promoting the popularity of AI.
Altman calls the current era the "intelligent era" that will bring about profound social changes.
Although Altman's prediction is radical, it has triggered people's thinking about the future development direction of artificial intelligence. This article not only demonstrates OpenAI’s ambitions for AGI, but also reminds us to pay attention to the challenges and opportunities that the development of AI may bring. We need to view the development of AI technology rationally, actively respond to potential risks, and ensure that AI technology benefits all mankind.